The State of the State's Senate Races

Most senate watchers aren’t surprised with the state senate results.

Many had predicted anything between a 12-12 split and a 15-9 Democratic majority.

The surprise in the state Senate races is that Democratic candidates didn’t do better given the success of candidates at the top of the ticket.

Take vote totals in Berlin, for example.

Jeanne Shaheen, Barack Obama and Paul Hodes all won their races easily.

But Martha McLeod, who was challenging Republican Senator John Gallus, lost by about 300 votes.

Democrats failure to capitalize on the favorable political climate doesn’t surprise Republican political operative Rich Killion.

TAPE: with an emerging budget crisis I think you are seeing a lot of Republican state senate candidates gain traction over that issue.

In addition to Gallus holding his seat in the North Country, Republican minority leader Ted Gatsas fared much better in his rematch against Bob Backus than in 2006.

And the GOP successfully defended the Carroll County District 3 seat, which includes Conway and Wolfeboro.

Scott Merrick, Democrat Martha McLeod’s campaign manager, isn’t ready to chalk up Republican victories to increase in state spending, or a budget deficit.

TAPE: as we campaigned, we saw a lot or heard a lot of people say, ‘yep, going straight ticket, Democrat, yep, just going down the ticket.’ But a lot of those folks are just used to checking one box.

Heading into this election, both parties agreed the elimination of straight ticket voting would result in a significant drop-off in state senate races.

But again using Berlin as the example, only 97 more people voted for either Barack Obama or John McCain than in the race between Gallus and McLeod.

What that all means, at this point, is not clear.

Ian Graves, who ran the state Senate races for the Democrats says with all of the town-by-town results unavailable it makes it impossible to the numbers.

TAPE: There’s a lot of analysis that we will do, not having straight ticket voting, and exactly how that plays out is something that we are looking at, that will be something for a couple of more days.

Over the next two years political scientists and operatives will pour over the results, looking for clues and an edge.

But in the immediate aftermath of Tuesday night’s elections, both sides are claiming victory.

At the end of the day, Graves says the winner is the party with the majority.

TAPE: the ability of senate Democrats to protect six freshmen and hold four retiring Democratic seats, and have a back to back majority for the first time in the history of New Hampshire, does indicate that we do have sustained majority and it’s not just a flash in the pan.

Republican Rich Killion says he sees reason for hope in the election.

TAPE: we think we have the issue grid on our side as we move towards 2010 with a more favorable turnout, we believe. There are huge opportunities that will lie ahead.

The bottom line, it’s easy for either party to spin results when nothing substantial has changed.

For NHPR News, I’m DG.