Gambling Bill: Savior or Scourge

Good luck to the lawmaker out there who really wants to understand the fiscal impact of the gambling proposal.

Supporters say - conservatively- video slots at racetracks will net $205 million dollars over the biennium.

And they say that money would start flowing later this year.

Then there are the opponents.

TAPE: the assumption they are making is that nine months from now we will have four thousand slot machines at a couple of locations. That is a total fantasy.

Mike Marsh is a former state Representative who served on a study commission that looked at expanded gambling.

Marsh doesn’t doubt only the revenue projections, he doubts the state will see receipts at any point in the next two years.

TAPE: there are so many steps that have to go through. So many things have to go right. So many things have to not occur, like no litigation, no zoning problems, it just isn’t going to happen.

Marsh says, based on his research, no state since 2000 has seen money make it to state coffers more quickly than 22 months.

It’s hard to know if either side’s estimates will hold sway with many lawmakers.

Representative Sharon Nordgren- who is one of a dozen legislators on the committee of conference dealing with the budget- doesn’t think so.

TAPE: I think a lot of people aren’t concerned about the numbers. Cause they think you can spin numbers how you want to spin them. The issue is whether you support the bottom line idea of gambling coming to New Hampshire, and what that brings.

To Senator Lou D’Allesandro- gambling brings a shot in the arm to those New Hampshire residents who need it most.

TAPE: you know what’s happened to Medicaid, you know what’s happened to TANF, you know what’s happened to Food Stamps...so anything that provides for economic recovery, job creation ought to be considered....you can not turn your back on the citizens of the state of New Hampshire who want to work! They want self-respect....WE WANT TO WORK. AND WE WANT JOBS. And this is a way to do that.

Attorney General Kelly Ayotte says she understands there is a financial crisis right now.

But she says she fears- as do many lawmakers, particularly in the House- that the state’s quality of life will suffer.

TAPE: we will see increased levels of crime. Increased levels of...those who become pathological or problem gamblers. They will see increased rates in terms of divorce, financial problems, bankruptcy, and in some instances suicide. That’s what the studies show. As the Attorney General that is the wrong direction for our state as a revenue source.

Lobbying will be intense over the coming days.

It’s hard to know how lawmakers working on the budget will react.

The pros and cons of gambling and the disagreements on revenue estimates are hardly new.

What is different is that the state faces a nearly half a billion dollar shortfall.

So the question for committee members is whether gambling is a viable option not only in the conference committee but with the full House and Senate.

For her part, Representative Sharon Nordgren, a gambling opponent- is hoping for a different choice.

TAPE: I am looking forward, and optimistic that when DRA and the people working in the trenches come up with new options...that we’ll be able to come up with a laundry list of things we could agree on.

Nordgren is referring to the so-called ‘third-way,’ an assumed catalog of revenue sources that would render gambling moot.

To this point, no one has offered any detailed plans, but lawmakers are talking about a tax on refinancing property as well as closing business tax loopholes.

Allegedly those plans are forthcoming.

But even if those ideas emerge, expect gambling to continue to play an important role in the on-going budget discussions.