Ayotte Resigns As AG To Mull Senate Bid

Kelly Ayotte announced her plans via a statement that thanked Governors Lynch and Benson for tapping her to be Attorney General, and noted that many local voters had urged her to run for senate. Ayotte later told WMUR-TV that she and her family had given the matter plenty lot of thought.

“I am very dedicated to serving the people of NH, and if that’s my decision to run for senate, I will do so with the same level of commitment and energy that have marked my years as attorney general.

At this point, Ayotte’s decision isn’t a huge surprise. Her running for office has been a topic of conversation among local GOP operatives for the last half-decade or so. And over the last few weeks, the discussion has become very public, and extended will beyond the speculation of barroom and blogosphere.

"Attorney General Ayotte is exceptional; I mean, she’s been appointed by two governors: one democrat, one republican. She’s served for five years even though she’s young, so, she’s a talent."

That was Senator Judd Gregg speaking late last week on NHPR’s the exchange. Gregg, like most other top republicans, stresses that Ayotte is simply one of a list of strong potential candidates. Other names in the mix include, former Congressman Charlie Bass, longtime GOP activists, Attorney Ovide Lamontange, and BAE systems Vice President Rich Ashooh. There’s also newcomer Fred Tausch, who’s hired a staff and run radio and TV ads criticizing Washington spending and Paul Hodes. Ayotte would, at this early stage of the game, seem enjoy an advantage over most of these potential candidates of enjoying a high public profile. But name recognition alone, does not win elections.

“Your name ID means nothing, it means nothing.”

That’s Hancock based GOP consultant David Carney. He was political director in the first Bush White house and has worked on Senate contests across the country. He says Ayotte has potential, but would face the same hurdles that face any senate candidate. How do you come up with the millions it takes to run a strong campaign – Carney pegs that number a 2 million just to get out of the primary.

“That’s a herculean task, particularly when you are not going to get much help from outside the state. And raising 2 million in New Hampshire is a huge task that I don’t think anyone has done.”

And besides cash, there’s also the small matter of message.

“What does she believe? And I’ll tell you republican primary voters, --not the elitists, not the people who hang out in Concord -- are going say you’ve been John Lynch’s Attorney General, what’s the difference between you and John Lynch? I mean, she’s going to have a lot of explaining to do. It doesn’t mean it can’t be done, but she needs a message.”

But to some conservatives, Ayotte is far from a blank slate. They point to her so far successful pursuit of the death penalty in the murder of Manchester police officer Michael Briggs. They point to her argument arguments on behalf of NH’s now repeal parental notice for abortion law, which she took all the way to the US Supreme Court. Some also note her initial move to sign onto a brief last year that asked California’s Supreme Court to delay legalizing same-sex marriage pending a public referendum. Ayotte reversed course when she realized the move conflicted with NH’s civil unions law. GOP national committeewoman Phyllis Woods, also notes Ayotte’s stint as legal counsel for former Governor Craig Benson.

“We found her incredibly supportive of all of our republican initiatives. She’s an easy to work with woman, and I’d be proud to have her represent us in the Senate, and it certainly looks like in the polls she’s doing very, very well.”

And while it’s unwise to read much into any poll taken far from an election, numbers released late last week by the UNH survey center, do indicate that for now at least, Kelly Ayotte has some things going for her. Andy Smith is UNH survey center director.

“45 percent of the people in the state had a favorable opinion of her; only 8 percent had a negative opinion of her. That stands in contrast to Paul Hodes, whose run for office several times. 32 percent have a favorable opinion of him, while 23 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.”

But while Ayotte has yet to make her candidacy official, the state Democratic party is wasting no time in trying to drive up her unfavorables. In the course of a 2 minute interview, party Spokesperson Victoria Bonney repeatedly invoked Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, and claimed Ayotte’s decision to resign as Attorney General to run for Senate was part of a national GOP pattern.

“They abandoned their responsibility to constituents in favor of personal gain. We’ve seen this from Alaska to New Hampshire, and Kelly Ayotte has broken her promise to the people she represents. And we know whoever wins this Republican primary, Congressman Hodes will run a successful campaign and be our next US Senator."

Paul Hodes is not expected to face a democratic primary challenge. He’s also likely to enter the general election well-financed. Last week Hodes reported having 1 million dollars on hand, 725-thousand of which he’d raised in the last quarter.