Play Live Radio
Next Up:
0:00
0:00
0:00 0:00
Available On Air Stations
Make a sustaining gift today to support local journalism!
0000017a-15d9-d736-a57f-17ff8d8c0001Click on a photo to find stories by candidate:0000017a-15d9-d736-a57f-17ff8d8c0002More Content:Our Voters Guide provides an overview of all you need to know about the 2016 N.H. Presidential Primary.Click here to explore a calendar of candidate visits and other Primary campaign events.Click here for our Money in Politics stories and data interactives.Visit our Where They Stand series for an overview of the candidates' positions on key policy questions.Visit our series Primary Backstage to learn about the people and places that make the N.H. Primary tick.To see NHPR photos from the campaign trail, visit our Primary 2016 album on Flickr.

Where Sanders Might Have His Best Shots Going Forward

Bernie Sanders waves as he leaves the stage at a rally in Illinois.
Paul Beaty
/
AP
Bernie Sanders waves as he leaves the stage at a rally in Illinois.

Bernie Sanders was able to win in Michigan, upsetting Hillary Clinton, with the support of white men. (NPR's Tamara Keith laid that out in this postthis morning). Sanders won 62% of white men in the Michigan Democratic primary, while Clinton won 68% of black voters. That is a big share, but wasn't enough — and certainly smaller than the margins she's gotten among black voters in Southern states.

Looking at that difference, between white men and black voters, the chart shows where Sanders and Clinton might have their best shots in states going forward with significant delegate hauls. This analysis is based on 2008 exit polls and takes the difference between what white men were as a share of the electorate as compared to black voters.

Using 2008 exit polls in the Democratic primaries, the chart shows the difference between white men and black voters as shares of the electorates in upcoming states with big delegate hauls.
Domenico Montanaro / 2008 and 2016 exit polls
/
2008 and 2016 exit polls
Using 2008 exit polls in the Democratic primaries, the chart shows the difference between white men and black voters as shares of the electorates in upcoming states with big delegate hauls.

A couple notes:

-No exit polls were conducted in Washington state in 2008, but it probably looks similar to Oregon. Census data shows Washington state has a marginally higher African-American population.

-Hispanics were not factored into this analysis, and they will certainly make a difference in California, Arizona and Florida. Clinton won a large share of Latinos in Texas, though Sanders split with her in Nevada, according to exit polls. Sanders also won Colorado, a state with a large Latino population, though no entrance or exit polls were conducted at those caucuses.

Copyright 2023 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.

Domenico Montanaro is NPR's senior political editor/correspondent. Based in Washington, D.C., his work appears on air and online delivering analysis of the political climate in Washington and campaigns. He also helps edit political coverage.
Related Content

You make NHPR possible.

NHPR is nonprofit and independent. We rely on readers like you to support the local, national, and international coverage on this website. Your support makes this news available to everyone.

Give today. A monthly donation of $5 makes a real difference.